Post by account_disabled on Mar 9, 2024 2:07:39 GMT -6
With 32 trillion dollars, 2022 is positioned as the best year for global trade despite having slowed down in the second half of the year and with a global recession looming next year.
The trade contraction began in the third quarter of the year, when goods were traded about 1% less than between March and May.
A 2023 is expected in which geopolitical tensions, high energy prices, rising interest rates and persistent inflation will restrict global trade next year, according to the Global Trade Update (December 2022) report published by the UNCTAD on December 13.
Despite the war in Ukraine and the lingering impact of the pandemic, trade in goods and services has seen strong growth this year. Trade in goods grew to $25 trillion (an increase of 10%), due in part to higher energy prices. Services increased 15% to a record $7 trillion, but the report points to a very different 2023.
According to it, economic growth forecasts for 2023 are being revised downwards due to the cost of energy, rising rates, sustained inflation in many economies and the effects of the war in Ukraine, while the Tightening financial conditions puts even more pressure on highly indebted governments, negatively affecting investments and international trade flows.
However, despite the slowdown in the trade value expressed in currency in the second quarter, trade volumes in tons continued to grow throughout 2022. This difference can be explained in part by the fall of certain primary products and the downward trend in the cost of freight, so demand remains strong.
In the third quarter Ecuador Mobile Number List of 2022, the value of global trade in goods was well above the levels of the same period in 2021 for both developing and developed countries, but affecting the former more. On a quarterly basis, trade declined in all geographic regions except East Asia, which shows considerable resilience.
Recently signed trade agreements such as the Asia-Pacific Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) should also help boost trade in the coming quarters.
Risk and uncertainty remain high for global supply chains overall, but efforts to forge a greener global economy are expected to stimulate demand for environmentally sustainable products while reducing demand for high-carbon goods. carbon and fossil fuels.
The report also suggests that the growth of merchandise exports will be halved, from the sharp increase of 26.5% recorded in 2021 to 13.8% this year. For services exports, which include transportation and travel, the slowdown will be less pronounced, from 17.2% to 14.6%.
Despite strong growth in services trade in 2021, the value of exports ($6.1 trillion) remained below pre-COVID-19 levels ($6.3 trillion in 2019).
On the other hand, the trade surplus of developing economies continues to grow, especially in Africa, translating into an increasing trade deficit for developed economies, with a total trade of 8 trillion dollars, much higher than trade between the countries themselves. developing (5.4 billion).
In line with the slowdown in trade recorded in the report, according to The Wall Street Journal, large US ports have recorded sharp drops in imported container volumes in November. Specifically, Los Angeles and Long Beach, the busiest port in the country, have recorded 26% less activity in November than in November 2021 while sales in US retail trade also fall drastically.